Hollis
2009
Strong demand impetus from both fiscal and monetary policy
measures is expected to limit the economic downturn in
Norway
Following a 15 per cent growth from 2007 to 2008,
the Norwegian PR-sector expects zero og negative growth, but not a sharp
downturn in 2009. This comparatively positive prediction has its background in
macroeconomic factors, structural characteristics of the Norwegian market and in
concrete market surveys.
The international financial crisis has led to a
significant deterioration in the outlook for the global economy. The Norwegian
economy is also affected by the financial crisis. The Government now forecasts
zero growth in Mainland GDP in 2009, compared to an estimate of 2 per cent in
the 2009 Fiscal Budget presented in October 2008.
Norway enjoys a robust
economy, drawing on large surpluses from crude oil and gas exports and
responsible fiscal policies over the years. Strong demand impetus from both
fiscal and monetary policy measures is expected to limit the economic downturn.
The proposed fiscal stimulus packages are expected to mitigate the effects of
weaker export and private sector demand, and thus dampen the decline in
employment, especially in the building and construction industries.
Excepting those hit by unemployment, most Norwegian consumers will enjoy
lower interest rates on mortgages and an increase in purchasing power in 2009.
This will of course affect the PR-market positively. In Norway, the public
sector constitutes a larger proportion of the total turnover than in most other
countries and is expected to be upheld or hopefully increased in
2009.
This comparatively positive outlook has been confirmed by NPRCA/NIR
market surveys which show that only six percent of decision makers expect
PR-budgets to be cut. A NPRCA sector benchmark survey from 2009 reflects the
same picture; zero growth or maybe a small downturn.
However – if
there is one clear lesson to be learned from the what has happened in the global
economy over the last year – it is that predictions and forward analyses are a
risky business.
An analysis conducted by NPRCA/NIR in 2007 indicated total
revenues for the PR-sector in Norway of NOK 740 million (Euro 92.5
million).
Hauk Lund
President
NPRCA/NIR
